Asymptomatic Spread explained:
I need you to put ALL the information you've heard since the start of this pandemic aside and simply follow along this logic:
ALL VIRUSES SPREAD BY ASYMPTOMATIC SPREAD. If they didn't, they'd NEVER get anywhere.
Perhaps we should start calling it “Pre-Symptomatic Spread”.
Viruses have ONE agenda and that is to continue to spread and utilize our bodies as their manufacturing plants. The laws of biology and virology state that there MUST be SOME level of asymptomatic/presymptomatic spread for a virus to remain viable and within the population circulating amongst hosts.
If there was no asymptomatic spread, that would be like saying the second you contract any virus is the second you come down with symptoms, and we know that's not true. It takes a day to a few days from contact to symptoms.
If you have kids you understand this. How many times have you been with someone who seemed perfectly fine. The next day they call you to tell you they are running a fever or have a slight cold. 2-3 days later you, yourself and/or your children come down with symptoms? That's asymptomatic/presymptomatic spread.
Or maybe you DID NOT get sick, but they did. Or maybe you've lived in a house when everyone was sick and you were not. Or one person was sick and no one else. You get my drift.
If we apply common sense and what we KNOW about all other upper respiratory viruses in our past, we can understand this better. It's not an alien and it's in the same sub-family as the common cold.
In the time between exposure and symptoms, a lot can happen. If someone was JUST recently exposed and running around town with very low viral titers (viral load) in their body, then they likely are NOT terribly contagious.
If they were exposed 5 days ago and running around town, presumably with higher viral titers, on their way to becoming symptomatic, they are likely MORE contagious. They may have a headache or fatigue but not yet KNOW they are sick with something and potentially spreading it all around.
If they were exposed ANY TIME and their bodies are handing it and they are not destined to present with ANY symptoms because their immune system is awesome, that means titers/load are PROBABLY low, and they are PROBABLY not going to be contagious much at all.
Bottom line: TIMING AND VIRAL LOAD (TITER) MATTERS.
Who is carrying the virus? That matters. A LOT.
A big part of the equation lies in an individuals overall health.
Their overall levels of fat cells, level of inflammation, hormonal status, gut status, sleep, stress, immune function, nutritional status, exercise habits, genetics and much more ALL impact how well any virus is going to replicate inside of their bodies and thus, how much viron they might be spewing about (ie. what their viral titers/load will be).
Another important variable is from WHOM they contracted it and what was THAT PERSON'S level of health.
For example, obese individuals create more virulent variants once a virus passes through their bodies in the case of influenza.
“Being obese not only increases the risk of infection and of complications for the single obese person, but recent evidence indicates that a large obese population increases the chance of appearance of more virulent viral strain, prolongs the virus shedding throughout the total population and eventually may increase overall mortality rate of an influenza pandemic.”1
We have the data on obese bodies spreading MORE virus in their aerosols with SARS COV2 as well.2
Sickly, inflamed, immunocompromised and obese people are most often who tend to be Super Spreaders.
Super Spreaders are individuals who make up 20% of the infected spread 80% of the disease.
As you can see, it's complicated. There is NO simple yes or no answer to the “Can the virus spread though asymptomatic individuals?”
I've had hundreds of people reach out to me on social media telling me all about their asymptomatic spread experiences. I had an asymptomatic spread experience.
90% of Covid-PCR positive individuals are asymptomatic. That’s likely because the tests PCR are a flawed way to test for disease and carry with them a high cycle threshold.
Asymptomatic Covid-positive have a spread rate of less than 1%. They are NOT usually super spreaders and are NOT usually super infectious, except that DEPENDS on WHEN in their viral cycle they fall (when were they exposed and how is their immune system handling it?).
Again, viral load matters:
Viruses burn themselves out in a population when they burn through their substrate (hosts). They don't mean to kill their host, they want you to carry and pass them around. They can do this MUCH better if you are asymptomatic, so there IS SOME degree of that happening. Obviously symptomatic people are truly the more contagious as they are carrying higher viral titers (load).
Think of how the flu spreads: You may become ill after interacting with a sick, coughing person. Or you may become ill after being at a party with a group of seemingly well people, one or more of whom are rocking viral titers high enough to be expelled in their aerosols while breathing and talking.
This virus also has an affinity for inflamed tissues and adipose, as both have LOTS of ACE2 receptors (it's binding site). We happen to have a LOT of obese/inflamed people in the US, so it's got a lot more viable hosts to work through.
Vaccine or not, you can still get infected with the virus. The vaccine is simply showing efficacy in keeping the experience more mellow and those who are vaxed were having less severe symptoms. At least with the original strain and delta. It does NOT stop spread (transmission).
This is NOT a justification for chronic masking and social distancing. I do not believe those strategies benefits outweigh their risks. I’ll address my thoughts on this in a future post.
Exhaled aerosol increases with COVID-19 infection, age, and obesity. Feb 9, 2021
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